Risk: A Very Short Introduction - Baruch Fischhoff and John Kadvany

We find risk everywhere--from genetically modified crops, medical malpractice, and stem-cell therapy to heartbreak, online predators, identity theft, inflation, and robbery. They arise from our own acts and they are imposed on us. In this Very Short Introduction, Baruch Fischhoff and John Kadvany draw on both the sciences and humanities to illuminate both the similarities and differences of various kinds of risk. They examine the science and practice of creating measures of risk and look at how scientists apply probability by combining historical records, scientific theories, and expert judgment. More importantly, they show what science has learned about how people deal with risks, applying these lessons to diverse everyday examples.

Talking To The Enemy - Scott Atran

Atran examines the motivations of terrorists in this sprawling and timely study. Drawing upon years of travel among Muslim communities from Indonesia to Morocco, extensive interviews with would-be martyrs and holy warriors, and detailed surveys, the author concludes that young jihadists aren't merely motivated by political or religious fervor--they are powerfully bound to each other, they were campmates, school buddies, soccer pals, and the like, who become die-hard bands of brothers.

In Gods We Trust - Scott Atran

This ambitious, interdisciplinary book seeks to explain the origins of religion using our knowledge of the evolution of cognition. A cognitive anthropologist and psychologist, Scott Atran argues that religion is a by-product of human evolution just as the cognitive intervention, cultural selection, and historical survival of religion is an accommodation of certain existential and moral elements that have evolved in the human condition. "Atran's work is a brilliant exposition of the evolutionary by-product interpretation [of religion] as well as a mine of references for empirical research into the psychology of religion."--Pascal Boyer, Current Anthropology

Forging Democracy: A Comparative Study of the Effects of U.S. Foreign Policy on Central American Democratization - Juan Carlos Zarate

Regional hegemons can and do determine the political evolutions of countries within their respective spheres of influence. This study propounds and tests this new theory by examining the influence of U.S. foreign policy on Central America regime formation in the late 1940s and 1980s. By dissecting and comparing the modern histories of Costa Rica, Guatemala, and Nicaragua, this book provides a fresh analysis of these countries' histories and of U.S. influence in their political development. theory provides a framework within which to study the effects of other hegemons' policies on their respective spheres of influence (i.e. the French in Africa). This seminal work extends the understanding of past events, present debates, and possible future ramifications of U.S. foreign policies.

The Native Mind and the Cultural Construction of Nature - Scott Atran and Douglas Medin

"The Native Mind and the Cultural Construction of Nature beautifully illustrates Atran and Medin's findings in the realm of folkbiology. They present a series of brilliantly conceived and executed studies whose importance goes far beyond being invaluable science to having real implications for social policy, especially in areas concerned with the environmental issues. This book is essential reading for psychologists, who all too often look at problems from the lens of just one culture, for anthropologists, who all too often neglect evolved universals of thought, and for anyone else interested in the relations among culture, thought, and human values." --Frank Keil, Department of Psychology, Yale University

The Evolution of Cooperation - Robert Axelrod

The Evolution of Cooperation addresses a simple yet age-old question: If living things evolve through competition, how can cooperation ever emerge? In 1979 Robert Axelrod famously ran a computer tournament featuring a standard game-theory exercise called The Prisoner's Dilemma. The program that won the tournament, named Tit for Tat, was not only the simplest but the most "cooperative" entrant. This unexpected victory proved that cooperation is mathematically possible and therefore needs no hidden hand or divine agent to create and sustain it. A roadblock to the understanding of all sorts of behavior was removed. The updated edition includes an extensive new chapter on cooperation in cancer cells and among terrorist organizations. "This book, if read, grasped and applied, could have a profound effect." (Wall Street Journal)

The Complexity of Cooperation: Agent-Based Models of Competition and Collaboration - Robert Axelrod

"Robert Axelrod's extraordinary book, The Evolution of Cooperation was globally acclaimed for the rich results of its simple model. The Complexity of Cooperation now gathers together the myriad fruits of more than a decade's work, carefully 'complexifying' his initial model. Like his ideas, his prose is clear and engaging. His delight as he unveils each surprising discovery is infectious. This book is not merely important; it's fun." -- Robert D. Putnam, author of Making Democracy Work

Harnessing Complexity: Organizational Implications of a Scientific Frontier - Robert Axelrod and Michael D Cohen

HARNESSING COMPLEXITY is a breakthrough book on complexity science. It provides the first useful framework and vocabulary for evaluating complex adaptive systems, while giving you the first guidelines for considering how to use the circumstances of your complex adaptive system to your organization's advantage.

Lessons from the Inside: Drug Smugglers on Drug Smuggling - Scott H. Decker and Margaret Chapman Townsend

"This book is the most comprehensive study of drug smuggling and drug smugglers I have seen. The details and descriptions of the smugglers’ activities are rich and extensive. Decker and Chapman delve deeply into interdiction efforts and the methods and strategies used by drug smugglers to counter the government’s efforts. In particular, the study views the government’s efforts at deterrence from the perspective of the smugglers themselves, offering a unique approach to the issue." —Paul Cromwell, Wichita State University

Strategies to Address Gang Crime: A Guidebook for Local Law Enforcement - Scott H. Decker

Author Scott H. Decker, PhD provides information about developing and enhancing local law enforcement responses to gangs in their jurisdictions. The focus of the guidebook is on the use of problem-solving strategies to help agencies select the interventions most appropriate for their jurisdictions. In particular, the guidebook describes the SARA model (Scanning, Analysis, Response and Assessment), a strategic problem-solving process with which local law enforcement is familiar and can apply to its local gang problem. This is the must-have resource to help law enforcement understanding the factors that contribute to their gang problem and select appropriate responses.

The International Handbook of Juvenile Justice - Scott H. Decker

This comprehensive reference work presents inside information on the Juvenile Justice-systems in 19 different countries, both in EU-member states (old and new ones) as well as in the United States and Canada. The book is the result of research conducted by a group of outstanding researchers working in the field of Juvenile Justice, who are concerned about some of the trends in Juvenile Justice in the last two decades, where the border between criminal justice and Juvenile Justice tends to fade.

European Street Gangs and Troublesome Youth Groups - Scott H. Decker

This unique volume by eminent gang researchers presents valuable new data on European youth gangs, describing important characteristics of these groups, and their similarities and differences to American gangs. Their findings from the Eurogang Research Program highlight the impact of immigration and ethnicity, urbanization, national influences, and local neighborhood circumstances on gang development in several European countries. It is an important resource on crime, delinquency and youth development for criminologists, sociologists, youth workers, policy makers, local governments, and law enforcement professionals.

Acceptable Risk - Baruch Fischhoff

This is a brilliant and stimulating book. Although it nominally concerns itself with the area of hazard management, policy and technology choices associated with loss of life or limb, it provides a great deal of insight into all forms of risk management and formal decision making. A very well-researched book, it is obvious that the authors have not only thought long and hard about the subject matter, but have also applied a very disciplined analysis to it. Although the authors are scholars, the book is not necessarily aimed at an academic audience. While challenging, it is still approachable by the lay person.

Adolescent Risk and Vulnerability: Concepts and Measurement - Baruch Fischhoff

The Board on Children, Youth, and Families was created in 1993. Its Committee on Adolescent Health and Development studies issues facing young people and their families using analytic tools from the behavioral, social, and health sciences. Four papers from the Committee's March 2001 workshop, held in Washington, D.C., examine the beliefs underlying adolescents' decisions, present a framework for understanding the vulnerability of adolescents to undesirable outcomes, offer a model for estimating the economic payoffs for different types of policy actions designed to offset adolescent health risks, and discuss adolescents' concerns about their futures and well- being.

Elicitation of Preferences - Baruch Fischhoff

Economists and psychologists have, on the whole, exhibited sharply different perspectives on the elicitation of preferences. Economists, who have made preference the central primitive in their thinking about human behavior, have for the most part rejected elicitation and have instead sought to infer preferences from observations of choice behavior. Psychologists, who have tended to think of preference as a context-determined subjective construct, have embraced elicitation as their dominant approach to measurement. This volume, based on a symposium organized by Daniel McFadden at the University of California at Berkeley, provides a provocative and constructive engagement between economists and psychologists on the elicitation of preferences.

On Terrorism and Combating Terrorism - Ariel Merari

The 1979 International Seminar on Political Terrorism brought together top academic experts on the subject of terrorism and key public officials from several countries who are involved in combating it. This book contains lectures and discussions that took place during that conference, held in Tel-Aviv. Publication has been delayed for several reasons, in themselves unimportant. Yet, it is astonishing to realize that the material in this book remains so highly relevant several years after it was written. The very same questions which occupied the participants' attention then remain at the center of public interest and decision makers' concerns today.

Leaderless Jihad - Marc Sageman

In Leaderless Jihad, Sageman rejects the views that place responsibility for terrorism on society or a flawed, predisposed individual. Instead, he argues, the individual, outside influence, and group dynamics come together in a four-step process through which Muslim youth become radicalized. Leaderless Jihad offers a ray of hope. Drawing on historical analogies, Sageman argues that the zeal of jihadism is self-terminating; eventually its followers will turn away from violence as a means of expressing their discontent. The book concludes with Sageman's recommendations for the application of his research to counterterrorism law enforcement efforts.

Understanding Terror Networks - Marc Sageman

Understanding Terror Networks combines Sageman's scrutiny of sources, personal acquaintance with Islamic fundamentalists, deep appreciation of history, and effective application of network theory, modeling, and forensic psychology. Sageman's unique research allows him to go beyond available academic studies, which are light on facts, and journalistic narratives, which are devoid of theory. The result is a profound contribution to our understanding of the perpetrators of 9/11 that has practical implications for the war on terror. "One of the most original and innovative social science studies ever conducted on how individuals are driven to join terrorist organizations." - ForeWord Magazine

Unmasking Terror: A Global Review of Terrorist Activities - Marc Sageman

Unmasking Terror is a critical tool that helps today's domestic and international thought leaders better understand and address current trends in terrorism. -- --The Honorable Tom Ridge, First Secretary of Department of Homeland Security The Unmasking Terror series provides unique and insightful analysis, and continues to prove extremely useful as we work all the elements of national power to counter terrorism. -- --General Joseph Ralston (Ret.), Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) and the former Vice-Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff